Cinderella Nation Revisited

NOTE: This column references last year's NCAA Tournament column, available here.

Can we be a Cinderalla nation without a Cinderella?

That is the question I’m left pondering after a weekend of college basketball without a major upset. Last year, I wrote that the NCAA tournament gives us the most quintessential American tale – the Cinderella story – year after year. With the apparently level playing field in the tournament, any team could wear a glass slipper for a few weeks in March.

The results on the court bore out my theory – a quarter of the teams that won their first round games were double-digit seeds. Two double-digit seeds and five teams seeded worse than 6 survived the first weekend into the Sweet Sixteen. And the George Mason Patriots, an 11 seed from the unheard-of Colonial Athletic Association, knocked off three Goliaths on their way to the most improbable Final Four berth ever.

Last year’s results were so surprising that even as they underscored the first half of my theory – anything can happen – they cast doubt on the second half – but it usually doesn’t. The tournament, like the American dream it mimics, is not as fair as it seems, I wrote. But after George Mason, I began to wonder if maybe the playing field of the tournament was level after all.

Last year’s madness seemed to usher in the postmodern era for college basketball where conference affiliation, star players, and Hall of Fame coaches no longer mattered. Parity was the buzz word and an avalanche of upsets was predicted for this year’s tournament.

In short, the avalanche hasn’t happened. Of the forty-eight games played so far in this year’s tournament, only four qualify as genuine upsets. Only two-double digit seeds got through the first round and both were bounced in the second. Only two of the Sweet Sixteen is seeded 6 or worse. All four #1s, three #2s, and three #3s are still in.

All of which leaves us without a true Cinderella. The lowest seed remaining, #7 UNLV, has a championship banner from 1990. The two teams from so-called mid-major conferences, Butler and Southern Illinois, spent the majority of the season in the top 25 and earned good seeds. Like it or not, teams like Butler, Southern Illinois, and Gonzaga are becoming Goliaths of their own, albeit leaner ones.

Ironically, the Cinderella story from this year’s tournament may be predictability itself. Over the years, the tournament has captured our national attention by being unpredictable. In the wake of George Mason’s bracket-busting run last year, the only thing no one expected this year was exactly what we got – top seed domination. In the context of March Madness, what’s more unpredictable than predictability?

This development should be welcomed by all who love college basketball. We seemed headed to an era where anything really could happen, rendering the label of underdog irrelevant. How much of a fairy tale is it if Cinderella gets the prince every year?

This year’s tournament has restored order to the college basketball universe. At least until next year when it can be turned on its head once again. See you in March 2008.